Barnes exits race
Mandela Barnes ended his campaign for Wisconsin governor on Tuesday, a sudden move that comes two days after a Marquette University Law School poll showed state Rep. Francesca Hong holding a 34-point lead in the Democratic primary.
Barnes, a former lieutenant governor, announced the decision in a video message to supporters. He said Hong had built a formidable and historic campaign and that staying in the race would risk dividing the party before the general election.
Polling shift
The Marquette poll, released Sunday, showed Hong with 52 percent support among likely Democratic primary voters. Barnes trailed at 18 percent. No other candidate reached double digits. The survey sampled 800 voters and had a margin of error of 4 percentage points.
Poll director Charles Franklin said the results reflected Hong's success in consolidating progressive and labor groups. She has built a coalition that stretches from Milwaukee to Madison, Franklin said. Barnes could not overcome her strength with young voters and rural Democrats.
Hong broadens appeal
Hong, a state representative from Madison and former restaurant owner, has centered her campaign on medical debt forgiveness, public broadband and a state-level child tax credit. She has collected endorsements from the Wisconsin AFL-CIO and the Democratic Party of Wisconsin's progressive caucus.
In a statement, Hong thanked Barnes for his years of service. Mandela is a leader who has inspired many, Hong said. He strengthened our party by competing in every county. I look forward to earning the trust of his supporters.
Barnes's legacy and path forward
Barnes first won statewide office in 2018 as lieutenant governor alongside Tony Evers. He ran for U.S. Senate in 2022 but lost to Republican Ron Johnson. A Senate bid again in 2026 was expected, but Barnes chose to target the governor's mansion after Evers announced he would not seek a fourth term.
Political science professor Mordecai Lee of the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee said Barnes's departure does not guarantee Hong a smooth ride to the nomination. Primaries can be unpredictable, Lee said. But with Barnes out, there is no established statewide figure left to challenge her. The remaining candidates lack her name recognition and fundraising.
Remaining field
Two other candidates, Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley and state Superintendent Jill Underly, remain in the Democratic primary. Crowley has emphasized economic development and has support from several moderate county chairs. Underly has campaigned on school funding and rural issues.
Neither has yet to commission a public poll. Both will need to submit campaign finance reports by September to demonstrate viability. According to filings with the Wisconsin Ethics Commission, Hong raised $2.3 million in July, more than triple the amounts reported by Crowley and Underly combined.
Republican contest
On the Republican side, former U.S. Rep. Glenn Grothman and businessman Scott Mayer lead the primary field. Both have aligned with former President Donald Trump's policies on immigration and election integrity. The state Republican Party has set an August 11 primary date, matching the Democratic contest.
Wisconsin remains a battleground state. A Cook Political Report analysis from July rates the general election as a toss-up. Democrats have won three of the last four gubernatorial races in the state, but Republicans have controlled the legislature since 2011.
What happens next
Barnes said he will not immediately endorse in the primary. He intends to focus on voter protection initiatives before the November election. We cannot allow our voices to be silenced, Barnes said in his video. I will work to ensure every Wisconsinite can make their vote count.
Hong plans an event in Milwaukee on Thursday to rally supporters. She is expected to announce a new set of policy proposals focused on local food systems and small business expansion. Her campaign said she will also begin airing television ads in the Green Bay and Wausau markets next week.
Barnes's departure leaves a significant vacuum in the moderate wing of the party. Several Democratic donors who backed Barnes have already signaled they will switch support to Crowley, according to two campaign aides who spoke on condition of anonymity. The aides said the Crowley campaign is planning a fund drive for the first week of September.
The Marquette poll also showed that among all registered voters, Hong leads the current top Republican contender, Scott Mayer, by 4 points, within the margin of error. Political strategists on both sides say the fall campaign will hinge on turnout in Milwaukee and Dane counties.
